Housing Outlook is edited by Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer, and Anthony Murphy. Our aim is to provide informative analysis of the UK housing market from our perspective as academic economists.

Click here to see a chart of UK relative house prices since since 1990...

Gavin Cameron died on 9 September 2007.

A Memorial Service was held at the University Church of St Mary the Virgin, High Street, Oxford at 2pm on Saturday 17 November.

Many generous contributions have already been gratefully received by the Gavin Cameron Memorial Fund. They will be used to fund the Gavin Cameron Prize and Scholarship in Economics. Any further donations are very welcome and can be made online at http://www.lmh-alumni.org/NetCommunity/Page.aspx?&pid=244&srcid=241
or cheques, made payable to LMH Development and marked Gavin Cameron Fund, may also be sent to LMH Development Office, Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford OX2 6QA

An obituary for Gavin has been published in The Times: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/obituaries/article2538692.ece

A Memorial Service for Gavin Cameron, who died on 9 September 2007, will be held at University Church of St Mary the Virgin, High Street, Oxford at 2pm on Saturday 17 November. It will last about an hour, and will be a service of celebration and thanksgiving for Gavin’s extraordinary life. All of Gavin’s friends, colleagues, and students are most welcome.

Many generous contributions have already been gratefully received by the Gavin Cameron Memorial Fund. They will be used to fund the Gavin Cameron Prize and Scholarship in Economics. Any further donations are very welcome and can be made online at http://www.lmh-alumni.org/NetCommunity/Page.aspx?&pid=244&srcid=241
or cheques, made payable to LMH Development and marked Gavin Cameron Fund, may also be sent to LMH Development Office, Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford OX2 6QA

Gavin was a strong supporter of the campaign to change the law on organ donation. The petition to change the law is still open until 24 November 2007: http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/Organ-Donation/

An obituary for Gavin has been published in The Times: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/obituaries/article2538692.ece

For further information about Gavin or to contact his executors, please email gavincameronmemorial@yahoo.co.uk

The new National Housing and Planning Advice Unit (NHPAU) was launched last week, chaired by Professor Steve Nickell of Nuffield College, Oxford.

Their first report draws upon our house price modelling, in conjunction with a broader project coordinated by Professor Geoff Meen at the University of Reading, see Affordability Matters.

David Smith had a good discussion of this in the Sunday Times on 10 June:

"I can’t let the week pass without mentioning the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC), which sensibly decided to leave interest rates on hold at 5.5%, amid signs that its previous hikes may be starting to have an impact.

But I have to touch on the striking finding of the government’s new National Housing and Planning Advice Unit, chaired by former MPC member Steve Nickell. It produced the eye-catching conclusion that on unchanged policies housing for the poorest 25% of the population, typically first-time buyers, will be 10 times their earnings in 20 years.

The unit’s initial report, Affordability Matters, is a call to arms, and in particular a call for more housebuilding. Its affordability model, developed by Reading University, has some interesting properties, so: if real incomes rise 1%, house prices will rise by 2%; if interest rates rise 1%, house prices will fall by 3%; if the housing stock increases by 1%, house prices will fall by about 2%; and if the number of households increases by 1%, house prices will increase by 2%.

Many first-time buyers, of course, continue to look for a housing crash to deliver affordable homes into their laps. The report says this does “not reflect market fundamentals – demand for housing, driven by economic and population growth, continues to outstrip available supply”. The best long-term way to make housing affordable, in other words, is to have a lot more of it."

The latest data from the Halifax estimate that house prices rose by 0.3% in May with year on year growth of 10.6%. The Nationwide data show a rise of 0.5% in May with a 10.3% annual rise. Hometrack reported a monthly rise of 0.6% in May.

The Land Registry data show a 8.3% rise in the year to March 2006, with a 1.0% rise in March itself.

The latest data from the Halifax estimate that house prices rose by 1.1% in April with year on year growth of 10.9%. The Nationwide data show a rise of 0.9% in April with a 10.2% annual rise. Hometrack reported a monthly rise of 0.7% in April.

The Land Registry data show a 8.3% rise in the year to March 2006, with a 1.0% rise in March itself.

The latest data from the Halifax estimate that house prices rose by 1.0% in March with year on year growth of 11.1%. The Nationwide data show a rise of 0.4% in March with a 9.3% annual rise. Hometrack reported a monthly rise of 0.8% in March.

The Land Registry data show a 8.5% rise in the year to February 2006, with a 1.0% rise in February itself.

Almost all advanced countries have annual property taxes. Britain's council tax is shockingly unique in one respect and very unusual in another. It is unique because Britain is the only country where those living in £20m houses pay the same every year as those living in £1m houses.   more »

The latest data from the Halifax estimate that house prices rose by 1.8% in February with year on year growth of 9.9%. The Nationwide data show a rise of 0.7% in February with a 10.2% annual rise. Hometrack reported a monthly rise of 0.7% in February.

The Land Registry data show a 6.8% rise in the year to December 2006, with a 0.6% rise in December itself.

The latest data from the Halifax estimate that house prices rose by 1.3% in January with year on year growth of 9.9%. The Nationwide data show a rise of 0.3% in January with a 9.3% annual rise. Hometrack reported a monthly rise of 0.4% in January.

The Land Registry data show a 6.8% rise in the year to December 2006, with a 0.6% rise in December itself.

Click here for our new paper on "Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain".

Click here for our new paper on "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel".

Read the new Aron and Muellbauer paper on Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption, which models consumption in the UK and South Africa.

Details of the Aron and Muellbauer study and a review of our related work on consumption, credit and housing wealth are presented here.

Their paper uses the Credit Conditions Index (CCI) constructed by Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo and John Muellbauer in Consumer Credit Conditions in the United Kingdom (revised version).

Read our earlier articles   more »